【 $INMD -3】インモード(Inmode)はイスラエル発の医療機器銘柄。米国グロース株のテンバガー候補として調査中。種々のツイートをもとに、ユーザーの声、競合他社、強み弱み、懸念リスクなどを見出し、考察する。

この記事の3/5分割目です。

nimus.hatenablog.com

【海外投資家の反応...主に財務諸表に関して】

第1回目、第2回目の解説記事を見てもらうとわかると思いますが、財務諸表は極めて良好です。加えて直近では、上方修正がありました。

InMode sees 4Q20 and FY20 revenue above consensus

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3650691-inmode-sees-4q20-and-fy20-revenue-above-consensus

これは、先日行われたwebカンファレンスの要点。~23FYは、YtoY20~25%の展望です。

US stock ideas..$INMD
Inmode in recent JP Morgan conf

- FY21 rev guidance +25 - 30%
- FY 21-23 Rec Gr +20 - 25% (conservative)
- FY20 Net margin 40%
New products Fy21
- Gynacology
- Optholmagy
- Sleep apnea FY22

watch videohttps://t.co/nfJmI2bzOO
— Vetris_stocks (@vetris_stocks) 2021年1月15日

続いて、海外投資家の反応。

Assuming $206M 2020 revenues, that's 31.7% YoY growth from 2019 for $INMD

With the vaccines arguably helping InMode, their 23.7% proj. YoY growth (assuming midpoint of '21 guidance at $255M), looks very conservative... pic.twitter.com/4qQklZpt8Q
— Patrick (@Patrick_Invests) 2021年1月13日

I was looking at $INMD last night because it's hard to find companies with 26-30% growth, 85% gross margins and trading at just 24x earnings. This company should be trading at 36-40x earnings. NO JOKE!!!!!! This should be a $80+ stock.
— Jonah Lupton (@JonahLupton) 2021年1月13日

If I'm going to lose money in a stock I want it to be a stock that I've done a ton of research on and understand better. This is not the case with $TRIT. It was a risky bet from the beginning. I'd rather add to my other stocks. I'm also looking at $SWAV and $INMD
— Jonah Lupton (@JonahLupton) 2021年1月13日

海外の投資家にも、InModeに対するStrong buy判断をされている方々がいます。たびたび強調されるのは、YtoY25-30%という直近の成長率と、85%のグロスマージンに対して、PERが高々30弱かよ！というような内容ですね。

まあ、安いという印象を持ちますよねぇ。

Surprised that InMode hasn't gotten more attention. $INMD What am I missing?

InMode develops minimally-invasive medical products... everything from liposuction to wrinkle reduction, skin rejuvantion, hair removal, & more. It fills the gap between lasers and plastic surgery.
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

InMode's secret sauce is its radiofrequency technology. The technology enables face and body contouring without the scars that come from surgery. Patients get 90% of the results they'd get from a plastic surgery.... without the surgery, scars, and recovery time. $INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

The company's launched six product platforms since 2010 and has multiple patents, the oldest of which expires in 12 years. InMode has an installed base of 4,400 systems worldwide, with a target market of surgically-trained physicians (100k+ in the U.S. and 200k+ globally). $INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

Any product $INMD develops needs a gross margin of 85%+.

Once a system is sold, it opens the door for repeat consumables sales (still unclear what % of revenue this is today) as well as new/additional platforms InMode develops. InMode aims to develop two new platforms annually.
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

Right now 80% of revenue comes from the U.S. and 20% internationally. Management expects this to move to 50/50 in the coming years.

InMode already sells to 49 countries today, and is awaiting regulatory approval in countries like China, Brazil, Korea, and Taiwan. $INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

InMode is based in Israel, co-founded by Moshe Mizrahy (now chairman and CEO) and Dr. Michael Kreindel (now CTO). Mizrahy owns 18.7% and Kreindel owns 16% of the company. Healthy skin in the game. $INMD has significant "Approved Enterprise" tax advantages in Israel, for now.
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

Numbers look promising:

Revenue: $138M (up 57.4%)
Gross margin: 86.9%
Operating margin: 36.9%
Free cash flow: $43.6M
$165.3M in net cash

Extremely profitable, quickly-growing biz that's trading for 34x earnings and 33x free cash flow. Seems reasonable. $INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

Biggest risks/questions I have:

- What's the likelihood this technology isn't leapfrogged by a competitor or new entrant?

- What happens if regulators change their tune (for whatever reason)?

- Will people still care about their appearance in 5+ years? (lol jk)$INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

The growth drivers as I see them:

- Continued penetration globally with InMode's existing products
- Regulatory approval in new int'l markets
- Growing repeat sales via consumables
- New products/platforms to expand use cases and cross-sell to existing customers$INMD
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

I'm still learning but color me intrigued. (h/t @TMFTypeoh for intro to $INMD)

Financials are rock-solid. Founder-led with skin in the game. Technology seems strong and increasingly relevant w/ many growth opportunities ahead.

So back to my first question: what am I missing?
— David Kretzmann (@David_Kretzmann) 2020年1月11日

これも、注目度低いけど、会社の中身にケチのつけどころある？という趣旨のツイートに見えます。

挙げられたリスク要因も、企業を運営するにあたっては一般的につきまとうものかな、と。

それに個人的には、美容医療の需要が落ち込むとは到底思えません。これからもっと成長するかと、個人的には思っています。

Full pipeline for 2 new products/year for 5 years, each expanding the TAM to a new medical area/body type.
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2020年11月20日

"Our only 'competition' is a full-surgical procedure."
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2020年11月20日

$INMD as all the hallmarks of an early-stage monopoly. >200k units TAM + consumables vs. 6k penetrated now. ~13x P/cash earnings.
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2020年11月21日

$INMD ~18x multiple now on 2021 guidance, which they will surely smash by a wide margin? “Instagram tail wind”?
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2021年1月12日

I'm guessing you have some reasons to doubt the report, just asking for why. Credibility of the short seller, numbers show clear growth, product has a comp adv, etc?
— adu subramanian (@AduSubramanian) 2021年1月12日

E.g. check claims against the founder while @ Syneron. Are they true? I read just one lawsuit mentioned with those horrible pics. Turned out it is against a doctor and not at all a claim against Inmode/equipment. Then I just threw the report in the recycle bin.
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2021年1月12日

Thanks, you're right. I focused on the letter from the doc to inmode but it turns out I missed this line in the lawsuit: "Dr. Kingston later admitted that the laser setting she used on Mellisia’s neck was inappropriate". She was trying to get out of the malpractice case.
— adu subramanian (@AduSubramanian) 2021年1月12日

The syneron claims are partially true in that a lot of board came from that company and it was a failed company that was eventually taken private. The shadiness still turns me off of the investment. You don't have to swing at every pitch.
— adu subramanian (@AduSubramanian) 2021年1月12日

You keep bringing up this baseless "shady" crap. Syneron was not a failed company. Whatever normal course-of-business challenges it may have encountered, none were "shady" & were many years after Moshe left having taken Syneron public.
— rubicon59 (@rubicon59) 2021年1月13日

The company seemed to have the same pitch as inmode as they were 'revolutionizing skin surgery'. They also had great numbers to begin with.

If you've done the research and know inmode has a sustainable competitive advantage, more power to you.
— adu subramanian (@AduSubramanian) 2021年1月13日

I live in Korea and their treatment has gotten massively popular here. Considering it costs $100,000+ for a machine and the Korean cosmetics surgery market is huge, I see a bit of upside just from it.
— Kyungyeop Kim (@4UltimateTruth) 2021年1月13日

この方も、前々からInModeに着目されているように思いました。たまに濃い議論がなされているように思えるので、たまに見ています。

続き

nimus.hatenablog.com

目次（直リンク付）

1.【runoさんの一連のツイート】

　　　→InModeの概要。日本語

2.【特許ベースの議論...カピバラさん発のInMode考察スレッド】

　　　→InModeの強みって何なんだ？

3.【市場成長、競合他社の議論...カピバラさん発のInMode考察スレッド】

　　　→今後の展望の考え方

4.【海外投資家の反応...主に財務諸表に関して】←本記事

　　　→こんなに良い会社、こんなに安いのなぜ？という疑問の声